Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Ceding the Initiative

My final thoughts on the U.S.-Russia conference and what happens in the future. My pessimistic sense is that the initiative in the U.S. -Russia relationship, whether by choice or by accident, seems to be slipping out of the hands of the policymakers in Washington and Moscow. I was struck by repeated comments that the goal for the next year is to avoid any major confrontations--but it also seems that other, third-party actors are in a position to damage or alter the trajectory of the U.S.-Russia relationship. Instead of the agenda the two presidents agreed on in Sochi--even recognizing that much of it is highly ambitious and cannot be realized in 2008--we have a situation where what leaders like Saakashvili, Kostunica, Bagapsh, or Thaci have a good deal of influence over the tenor of relations between Moscow and Washington. In other words, both powers have not sufficiently insulated their relationship or build the ballast needed to ride out difficulties.

Comments:
US and Russia will have no problems if they just tell these guys to cool it. They aren't going to move if they don't get the green light from either Moscow or Washington.
 
" In other words, both powers have not sufficiently insulated their relationship or build the ballast needed to ride out difficulties."

Again, the false equivalence, Nik. The Russians tried. What do you call withdrawing from Central Europe, submitting to nearly a decade of "here's what you've got to do next. Here's some more sh*t for your face", and extending assistance to the US after 9-11? It's the US that thinks supporting blind, Russophobic Balts/Georgians/Poles more important than maintaining constructive relations with Russia.
 
I don't think Bagapsh or Kostunica have any serious legerage with Russians, at least while the two are not under a threat of ultimate defeat, military or political. The Russia and the U.S. situations are not symmetric.
 
As a citizen of one of the "other" states, I find it oddly reassuring that Russia has not regressed to such a totalitarian state that it can ignore the sentiments of other nations or its citizens. That's the silver lining to the unpleasantries and instability that we're seeing in and around Russia.
 
Post a Comment



<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?