The (Ex) Washington Realist

My final thoughts on the U.S.-Russia conference and what happens in the future. My pessimistic sense is that the initiative in the U.S. -Russia relationship, whether by choice or by accident, seems to be slipping out of the hands of the policymakers in Washington and Moscow. I was struck by repeated comments that the goal for the next year is to avoid any major confrontations--but it also seems that other, third-party actors are in a position to damage or alter the trajectory of the U.S.-Russia relationship. Instead of the agenda the two presidents agreed on in Sochi--even recognizing that much of it is highly ambitious and cannot be realized in 2008--we have a situation where what leaders like Saakashvili, Kostunica, Bagapsh, or Thaci have a good deal of influence over the tenor of relations between Moscow and Washington. In other words, both powers have not sufficiently insulated their relationship or build the ballast needed to ride out difficulties.