Friday, June 11, 2010
Aftermath of the Security Council Vote
I argue in today's World Politics Review column that the Obama administration has made gains vis-a-vis Iran and in improving its relations with Russia, but both are fragible and reversible.
My take on sanctions? Much now depends on the strategic assessment made by the Iranian regime. If it feels that the events of the last year have weakened its bases of domestic support, it may decide that continuing to push forward on the nuclear program -- which these new sanctions will now make much more expensive to pursue -- is less important than rebuilding and expanding the conventional capabilities of its military and security forces (to deal with possible new outbreaks of unrest, for instance). Similarly, Tehran might decide to prioritize another round of social welfare benefits to secure the allegiance of the working poor and rural classes who have been the mainstays of support for the Islamic Republic.
In today's National Interest column, I advise against viewing the Security Council vote as a sign of world unity on the subject. In particular, we need to get past the Brazilian and Turkish "no" votes.
My take on sanctions? Much now depends on the strategic assessment made by the Iranian regime. If it feels that the events of the last year have weakened its bases of domestic support, it may decide that continuing to push forward on the nuclear program -- which these new sanctions will now make much more expensive to pursue -- is less important than rebuilding and expanding the conventional capabilities of its military and security forces (to deal with possible new outbreaks of unrest, for instance). Similarly, Tehran might decide to prioritize another round of social welfare benefits to secure the allegiance of the working poor and rural classes who have been the mainstays of support for the Islamic Republic.
In today's National Interest column, I advise against viewing the Security Council vote as a sign of world unity on the subject. In particular, we need to get past the Brazilian and Turkish "no" votes.
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The strategic decision made by the Iranian regime has remained constant over the years - for the reasons of state (and not just regime) survival and cohesion, Iran has to have a latent nuclear capability.
The preferred approach would have been for Iran to exit NPT in 1998 after the nuclear explosions by India and Pakistan.
Perhaps it is too late to exit NPT but not too late to use NPT coverage to become nuclear-capable.
In regards to Russia; they are mikling US obsession with Iran for all its worth. And ultimately, they need Iran more than Iran needs them - there is a limit that they will go in keeping Iran down.
The Iranian leaders' view is that that US, China, Russia, EU, and India want to keep their country "down" (weak). Therefore, they will do whatever they can to break that cage. And they have: they are now in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and (latently) also in Pakistan.
US can bomb them but the bombing will not change the strategic situation.
The neighbour's of Iran, have operational business to conduct. They all have concluded that US policies will not bear fruit within the time-frame which many such operational decisions have to be made and executed.
For example, Pakistan is not going to go through years of energy shortages simply because US does not want her to import gas from Iran.
Likewise, Turkey is not going to sit around and let economic and security benefits of working with Iran or Syria or Russia not be obtained for her citizens.
Likewise even for Saudi Arabia.
My question to you is this: Can you – as a thinking American – sketch a positive view of the future for the Middle East that could benefit everyone? What could America offer, realistically?
The preferred approach would have been for Iran to exit NPT in 1998 after the nuclear explosions by India and Pakistan.
Perhaps it is too late to exit NPT but not too late to use NPT coverage to become nuclear-capable.
In regards to Russia; they are mikling US obsession with Iran for all its worth. And ultimately, they need Iran more than Iran needs them - there is a limit that they will go in keeping Iran down.
The Iranian leaders' view is that that US, China, Russia, EU, and India want to keep their country "down" (weak). Therefore, they will do whatever they can to break that cage. And they have: they are now in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and (latently) also in Pakistan.
US can bomb them but the bombing will not change the strategic situation.
The neighbour's of Iran, have operational business to conduct. They all have concluded that US policies will not bear fruit within the time-frame which many such operational decisions have to be made and executed.
For example, Pakistan is not going to go through years of energy shortages simply because US does not want her to import gas from Iran.
Likewise, Turkey is not going to sit around and let economic and security benefits of working with Iran or Syria or Russia not be obtained for her citizens.
Likewise even for Saudi Arabia.
My question to you is this: Can you – as a thinking American – sketch a positive view of the future for the Middle East that could benefit everyone? What could America offer, realistically?
# posted by 
: 10:24 AM
: 10:24 AM
The strategic decision made by the Iranian regime has remained constant over the years - for the reasons of state (and not just regime) survival and cohesion, Iran has to have a latent nuclear capability.
The preferred approach would have been for Iran to exit NPT in 1998 after the nuclear explosions by India and Pakistan.
Perhaps it is too late to exit NPT but not too late to use NPT coverage to become nuclear-capable.
In regards to Russia; they are milking US obsession with Iran for all its worth. And ultimately, they need Iran more than Iran needs them - there is a limit that they will go in keeping Iran down.
The Iranian leaders' view is that that US, China, Russia, EU, and India want to keep their country "down" (weak). Therefore, they will do whatever they can to break that cage. And they have: they are now in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and (latently) also in Pakistan.
US can bomb them but the bombing will not change the strategic situation.
The neighbour's of Iran, have operational business to conduct. They all have concluded that US policies will not bear fruit within the time-frame which many such operational decisions have to be made and executed.
For example, Pakistan is not going to go through years of energy shortages simply because US does not want her to import gas from Iran.
Likewise, Turkey is not going to sit around and let economic and security benefits of working with Iran or Syria or Russia not be obtained for her citizens.
Likewise even for Saudi Arabia.
My question to you is this: Can you – as a thinking American – sketch a positive view of the future for the Middle East that could benefit everyone? What could America offer, realistically?
The preferred approach would have been for Iran to exit NPT in 1998 after the nuclear explosions by India and Pakistan.
Perhaps it is too late to exit NPT but not too late to use NPT coverage to become nuclear-capable.
In regards to Russia; they are milking US obsession with Iran for all its worth. And ultimately, they need Iran more than Iran needs them - there is a limit that they will go in keeping Iran down.
The Iranian leaders' view is that that US, China, Russia, EU, and India want to keep their country "down" (weak). Therefore, they will do whatever they can to break that cage. And they have: they are now in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and (latently) also in Pakistan.
US can bomb them but the bombing will not change the strategic situation.
The neighbour's of Iran, have operational business to conduct. They all have concluded that US policies will not bear fruit within the time-frame which many such operational decisions have to be made and executed.
For example, Pakistan is not going to go through years of energy shortages simply because US does not want her to import gas from Iran.
Likewise, Turkey is not going to sit around and let economic and security benefits of working with Iran or Syria or Russia not be obtained for her citizens.
Likewise even for Saudi Arabia.
My question to you is this: Can you – as a thinking American – sketch a positive view of the future for the Middle East that could benefit everyone? What could America offer, realistically?
# posted by : 10:29 AM
: 10:29 AM
The question is whether the new sanctions (if they take effect) will truly threaten Iran's domestic stability; it is hard to see anything less dissuading Tehran from continuing its nuclear program.
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