Friday, January 29, 2010

Timing on Iran

Will "regime change" (or at least modification) to U.S. preferences occur before Iran crosses the nuclear finish line? My thoughts and your comments on the matter.

Compliments the piece that appeared in NI earlier this week.

The recent popularity of the so-called "Regime Change" idea stems from the hope in DC for a zero-cost solution.

On the other hand, without the participation of the Azeri Turks as well as the Shia religious leadership, no regime change in Iran is possible.

In regards to Azeris, Mr. Ahmadinejad is a known quantity - he was governor of Ardebil and got 58% of the vote there in last year's presidential election. Moreover, while Tehran experiences agitation, Tabriz (among many other cities) did not.

The Shia leadership abhors chaos - both political and social. They will never endorse any change in regime that has any whiff of incipient chaos/immorality etc. (as they judge it).

In regards to the so-called nuclear clock etc. – that horse has left the barn. It might be useful, from US/EU perspective, as a tool to beat Iran over the head and, at the same time, extract concessions from the Arab states but the nuclear Iran is here to stay.

Since US apparently is perceived to be – by a large number of Sunni Muslims, - to be at war with Islam, I think it will be a good idea for US to improve her relationship with the Islamic Republic, supplying herself with a fig-leaf to climb-down from her anti-Islam perch.
From the World Politics Review article:

"We Americans are naturally sympathetic to the aspirations of other peoples for greater freedom and liberty"

This is true only to the extent that Americans are extremely ignorant about the rest of the world. I don't believe you are that ignorant, but you are making use of their ignorance. Is that what you call being a "realist"?
Woops, forget that last post.
Hello ... just wanted to tell about the new link directory which was released just over a week ago.


have a nice weekend
/ / Rickard

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