The (Ex) Washington Realist

Will "regime change" (or at least modification) to U.S. preferences occur before Iran crosses the nuclear finish line? My thoughts and your comments on the matter.

Compliments the piece that appeared in NI earlier this week.

Brian Whitmore has an interesting take on the Obama administration and foreign policy one year on: the nudge strategy. As he puts it, an incremental approach designed to create "structural incentives that the White House hopes will "nudge" troublesome states like Iran, Russia, and China toward greater cooperation with -- or less resistance to -- the United States."

Also, the Ukraine That Might Have Been.

Laura Rozen reports that General Jones and Admiral Mullen will be headed to Moscow to get the START talks rolling again. My comment:

... how will the changed political climate in Washington affect the treaty negotiations? The Obama administration cannot afford to send to the Senate an agreement that appears to be making too many concessions to the Kremlin--but the Russian side is in no mood to compromise and in no hurry to hand the president any sort of foreign policy success. My prediction is that the talks will got bogged down in procedural details.

Some thoughts on the "day after" the Ukrainian elections (round one will be held this Sunday, January 17th).

My worries about the drift in U.S. policies vis-a-vis Latin America; is anyone doing the long-term thinking and planning?

Russia survived the crises of 2008-09; how it is set to cope with the next set of challenges on the horizon? I address that in a post for Tatiana Serafin's Global Market and Ideas blog. The Kremlin is not out of the woods yet.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, came to the Naval War College today to give a talk. I see it as giving us a glimpse at what is on his plate.

More detailed comments are over at Global Security.

One point I didn't make at that site: he is aware of the need to connect the dots between the inevitable decline in U.S. defense budgets with enlisting allies, partners and coalitions to handle international security.

That's what I argue in the New Atlanticist today. Partnership with Russia is not on the agenda; it is not a matter of rephrasing things nicely--because our interests and theirs are out of alignment.