Monday, October 06, 2008
Bad News from Afghanistan?
Via Dan Drezner, the news from the weekend that the government of Hamid Karzai has opened negotiations with the Taliban. An interesting development. As in Pakistan, the same dynamic--Karzai is looking to stabilize his own government, not fight to the last man in the U.S. war on terror.
And on another front. My colleague Derek Reveron asked today over at New Atlanticist:
Now that Somali pirates have captured global attention and European navies seem prepared to deploy to the Horn of Africa, working through the rules of engagement is critical. How aggressive will naval action be against pirates? Will European frigates attack the pirates when these same countries have largely refused to conduct combat operations against Taliban in Afghanistan?
Another worrying possibility? Is there a sufficient "pipeline" of expertise that stretches from Afghanistan to Somalia? In other words, could those with some practical experience of fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan find their way to join up with the Somali pirates?
And on another front. My colleague Derek Reveron asked today over at New Atlanticist:
Now that Somali pirates have captured global attention and European navies seem prepared to deploy to the Horn of Africa, working through the rules of engagement is critical. How aggressive will naval action be against pirates? Will European frigates attack the pirates when these same countries have largely refused to conduct combat operations against Taliban in Afghanistan?
Another worrying possibility? Is there a sufficient "pipeline" of expertise that stretches from Afghanistan to Somalia? In other words, could those with some practical experience of fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan find their way to join up with the Somali pirates?
Comments:
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Well, I'd be talking with the Taliban too, after you have the Brit commander in Afghanistan saying what he's saying.
Britain's commander in Afghanistan has said the war against the Taliban cannot be won, the Sunday Times reported.
It quoted Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith as saying in an interview that if the Taliban were willing to talk, then that might be "precisely the sort of progress" needed to end the insurgency.
"We're not going to win this war. It's about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that's not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army,"
Britain's commander in Afghanistan has said the war against the Taliban cannot be won, the Sunday Times reported.
It quoted Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith as saying in an interview that if the Taliban were willing to talk, then that might be "precisely the sort of progress" needed to end the insurgency.
"We're not going to win this war. It's about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that's not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army,"
# posted by 
: 11:38 AM
: 11:38 AM
"It's about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that's not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army,"
Wouldn't the non-Pashtuns, who are half of the population, go into opposition? I'm not sure this will reduce insurgency to a manageable level. But we certainly won't be a part of it.
We may now be entering the end game in both Afghanistan and Iraq. If the Maliki government meant what it said about our leaving in two years, we will be gone from that country soon, and I don't see us staying in Afghanistan to defend a government that includes the Taliban.
I agree with those over on Daniel Drezner's site who doubt the reported estrangement of the Taliban from al-Qaida. But I suppose we will have to see.
Wouldn't the non-Pashtuns, who are half of the population, go into opposition? I'm not sure this will reduce insurgency to a manageable level. But we certainly won't be a part of it.
We may now be entering the end game in both Afghanistan and Iraq. If the Maliki government meant what it said about our leaving in two years, we will be gone from that country soon, and I don't see us staying in Afghanistan to defend a government that includes the Taliban.
I agree with those over on Daniel Drezner's site who doubt the reported estrangement of the Taliban from al-Qaida. But I suppose we will have to see.
"In other words, could those with some practical experience of fighting NATO forces in Afghanistan find their way to join up with the Somali pirates?"
I think we will see a return to the WWII convoy system in the area. That should prevent piracy.
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I think we will see a return to the WWII convoy system in the area. That should prevent piracy.
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