Monday, July 21, 2008
Speaking Softly When Unsure About the Big Stick
There, in Tehran, lies the view that Turkey, Pakistan - singly or together - may attack Iran, fully supported by US, EU, Saudi Arabia, and others.
The nuclear capability of Iran, i.e. the ability to build a nuclear weapon on short notice is a matter of state and society survival for Iran.
This view is not a narrow one; many thinking Iranians inside or outside of the government share this view.
Can US & EU guarantee the survival of Iran against a virulently anti-Shia Pakistan armed with nuclear weapons? I think not.
If the aim of these discussions is some sort if Iranian surrender with Iran giving up nuclear capability it will fail. If the aim is to pave the way for a US-EU war against Iran, that war will not change the strategic calculus. If the aim is to give enough inducements to Iran so that she will take into considerations the US-EU interests in the Levant and the Persian Gulf then there might be a small chance for success.
Iranians, in my opinion, will go to war now to maintain their nuclear capability than to face the prospects of almost certain destruction 20 years from now at the hands of Turkey or Pakistan.