Tuesday, July 15, 2008
The Four Dialogues
The most important will be the Sino-American dialogue, in how Beijing and Washington begin to discuss how they will interpret norms, how they will interpret rules, how they will interpret obligations.
The Russian-EU dialogue will play a similar role, perhaps lesser than the Sino-American one, but this will also be a critical one.
The India-China one, because this is bridging the divide in a way that has not been anticipated by many in Washington, which is the extent to which the world's largest democracy and China are finding common ground on a number of issues, much more than they might find in their shared dialogues between Beijing and Washington and New Delhi and Washington.
And finally, overall what I might term the southern democracies, the dialogue among and between the southern democracies and other states—southern democracies and Europe, southern democracies and the United States.
How these four dialogues go will do a lot to determine how these global political parties work, whether or not there will be some grand bargains, consensus, who may stay in which party, who becomes an independent.
I apologize not to have greeted you ion the precedent post.
Without question this post condenses the actual IR trends in a very clear and divulgative way. I might say that obviously strategically speaking the most interesting dialogue is between the two economic heavyweights India and China, and I´m pleased to hear that it´s making steady and stable progresses. Such an agreement would immediately set the majority of the world population, consumers, economic might. EU-Russia-ASEAN will shortly follow.