Thursday, March 13, 2008
Some Real "3 AM" Scenarios
--A democratically-elected Greek government cannot reach a settlement with its Macedonian neighbor over the name issue. Push ahead with NATO invitations for the Western Balkan states without Macedonia, try to override Greek objections, or punt the entire issue to 2009?
--A democratically-elected Pakistani government signs a far-reaching "cease-fire" with militants. Polls show many Pakistanis don't want to carry water for "America's war". A Pakistani government says only with major U.S. concessions--essentially equality with India on a variety of issues plus pressure on India to accommodate Pakistan on Kashmir--is the only way to move forward.
--Nagorno-Karabakh petitions for recognition of its declaration of independence citing Kosovo.
I raise these three because the campaigns try and reach out to key "ethnic lobbies" in the U.S. with a good deal of what may seem to be empty rhetoric about sharing their concerns. Sure, most of this falls by the wayside--but don't think that any candidate wants to forego support from key Indian-, Greek- and Armenian-American lobbies at this juncture.