Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Testing the Takeyh-Gvosdev Thesis
I don't think so. First, the sanctions aren't particularly major--some financial freezes and travel bans. Everything I've seen so far is that the third resolution is going to be largely symbolic in import--designed to maintain the facade of unanimity among the great powers. Russia continues to claim that it is supporting the efforts of the international community to resolve the issue.
In the aftermath of last month's NIE, we should expect another report to come out, this time from the GAO, which is going to show that sanctions policies so far have been largely ineffective and that Iran has, since 2003, signed billions of dollars worth in energy contracts. And, perhaps on the heels of Sudan's decision to stop using the dollar and deal with financial institutions with no U.S. ties, Iran may also move in this direction to blunt any further unilaterally-imposed U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, Kuwait is moving ahead to resolve its long-standing disputes with Iran over the territorial boundary in the Gulf, which, incidentally, would allow Kuwait, Iran and Saudi Arabia to begin to develop the Dora gas field.
"meanwhile Russia provides nuclear fuel..."
I know this was announced but is it actually happening?