Monday, December 10, 2007

Some Thoughts on Medvedev ...

I've made some initial comments at NI online by referring back to some initial predictions made in October 2005, the analysis of which I think still holds up today.

Talking with some EG friends recently, we couldn’t help but notice that Putin should be a very healthy 60 and 64 in 2012 and 2016 respectively. I think - with 20-20 hindsight - that Medvedev gives him a nice combination of more options at relatively low risk.

Senior Minister sounds cool. It would be a more convenient perch than Prime Minister for Putin to maintain prestige, in case he must take over if Medvedev loses the popular mandate because of economic or security problems, such as the consequences of a major drop in oil prices, a dirty bomb going off in Moscow…
Except Russians waited too long to create this post. Would have made sense after 2004 electoral victory to use momentum to do so.
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