Thursday, November 01, 2007
How Everything is Interconnected ...
Some of the interconnections:
--Turkey shares a "community of interest" in minimizing Kurdish separatism with Syria and Iran--at a time when the United States is hoping to further isolate Tehran and Damascus. Meanwhile, Iraq is now asking for Iranian assistance in finding a soution with Turkey.
--cross-border security arrangements for any final settement between the Israelis and the Palestinians would rest largely on the assumption that they could and would be enforced. As I noted yesterday, problems in Northern Iraq undermine further any remaining confidence that outside powers--the U.S., NATO or some other international force--would be prepared to enforce border security as part of a peace deal.
--having made what Iran's president believes about the Holocaust--rather than simply focusing on Iran's concrete actions--part of the case for increasing pressure on Tehran, the whole question of the Armenian genocide resolution--which is simply postponed, not resolved-remains on the table.
--Russian statements for Turkey to show restraint serve Moscow's interests, because if Turkey does engage in a cross-border operation without any significant penalty from the United States, the Russian claim of a usable precedent for possible actions in the Caucasus is raised.
The old spiritual based on the image of the bones of the skeleton joining together in the Book of Ezekiel--the leg bone is connected to the thigh bone, and so on, is an apt metaphor to consider.