The (Ex) Washington Realist

... where we can see some similar dynamics. An opposition that sees the president eliminating remaining procedural checks on his power, a leader that claims that his mandate gives him the obligation to "see through" his revolution to its completion (and accuses a powerful northern neighbor of attempting to destabilize his country) ...

My prediction is that Hugo Chavez will win his referendum on December 2 simply because he continues to hold on to his base and they can give him a majority at the polls--just as I expect that in Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili will easily win re-election to the presidency given his wide base of support.

What is interesting in the Venezuelan case is the role of the universities--who enjoy a great deal of autonomy (e.g. police forces cannot enter campuses; rectors are elected in campus elections, not appointed by the state, etc.) Bringing them fully under his supervision is a major priority for Chavez if he is to neutralize all remaining centers of opposition, so it is not surprising that they have become the focal point of the demonstrations.