Friday, November 09, 2007
And Let's Not Forget Venezuela ...
My prediction is that Hugo Chavez will win his referendum on December 2 simply because he continues to hold on to his base and they can give him a majority at the polls--just as I expect that in Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili will easily win re-election to the presidency given his wide base of support.
What is interesting in the Venezuelan case is the role of the universities--who enjoy a great deal of autonomy (e.g. police forces cannot enter campuses; rectors are elected in campus elections, not appointed by the state, etc.) Bringing them fully under his supervision is a major priority for Chavez if he is to neutralize all remaining centers of opposition, so it is not surprising that they have become the focal point of the demonstrations.