Thursday, September 13, 2007
Zubkov: The Placeholder Theory
I've been reminded by one of my readers that I should not rule out a scenario that is drawn from the analogy I often make between Putin's Russia and the set-up of the PRI in Mexico.
A little history. Plutarco Elias Calles, unable to run again for president of Mexico, made himself the Minister of War (no term limits) and got recognition from all the factions to be Mexico's "political chief". He then from behind the scenes ruled through a series of presidents--Emilio Portes Gil, Pascual Ortiz Rubio, and Abelardo RodrÃguez--all of whom would serve for a time, and then resign.
So, if Zubkov Putin's version of Emilio Gil?
A little history. Plutarco Elias Calles, unable to run again for president of Mexico, made himself the Minister of War (no term limits) and got recognition from all the factions to be Mexico's "political chief". He then from behind the scenes ruled through a series of presidents--Emilio Portes Gil, Pascual Ortiz Rubio, and Abelardo RodrÃguez--all of whom would serve for a time, and then resign.
So, if Zubkov Putin's version of Emilio Gil?
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Hi Nikolas,
The PRI/Mexico comparison has been made with Russia in the past - especially considering the similarities between Lazaro Cardenas and Vladimir Putin:
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2007/02/a_perfect_dictatorship_1.htm
By the way, I have linked the Robert Amsterdam blog to here. Please let me know if for any reason you would prefer that I remove the link. We of course would be delighted if you decided to do the same.
Best,
James
Editor
www.robertamsterdam.com
The PRI/Mexico comparison has been made with Russia in the past - especially considering the similarities between Lazaro Cardenas and Vladimir Putin:
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2007/02/a_perfect_dictatorship_1.htm
By the way, I have linked the Robert Amsterdam blog to here. Please let me know if for any reason you would prefer that I remove the link. We of course would be delighted if you decided to do the same.
Best,
James
Editor
www.robertamsterdam.com
# posted by 
: 11:01 AM
: 11:01 AM
Indeed James. And for decades the US government extolled Mexico's committment to "Freedom and Democracy", 'cause the their oil as fast as we wanted.
But now they're running out, and it looks like they won't be a player in the oil export business in a decade or so. Do a quick google on "Cantarell".
Russia, OTOH, is the worlds biggest exporter, and will continue to be as Saudi production declines. The big problem is that Russia does not toe the US line any more, and won't increase production on demand. They have large oil fields that have not entered production. But they will.
When the price is right.
And that's why Western governments are so down on President Putin.
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But now they're running out, and it looks like they won't be a player in the oil export business in a decade or so. Do a quick google on "Cantarell".
Russia, OTOH, is the worlds biggest exporter, and will continue to be as Saudi production declines. The big problem is that Russia does not toe the US line any more, and won't increase production on demand. They have large oil fields that have not entered production. But they will.
When the price is right.
And that's why Western governments are so down on President Putin.
# posted by : 4:02 AM
: 4:02 AM << Home
