Wednesday, September 19, 2007
The Kouchner Gambit?
First, he warns that diplomacy may not work in putting a stop to Iran's nuclear ambitions and that the West may need to be prepared to use force. Then, he argues that a proposed missile defense system for Europe that is meant to serve, in theory, as a safety net to lessen the threat from Iran that he has just focused so much attention on is but a U.S. provocation against Russia.
So what to make of it?
I proposed that France may be trying to insert itself as the "indispensable mediator" between Russia and the United States, reaching out to Russia in the name of a larger European security project but also emphasizing to Washington that France remains a key component of the Euro-Atlantic community. The Bush Administration was certainly pleased with Kouchner's remarks on Iran, but President Putin also had reason to be satisfied with Kouchner's approach, especially since the second session of the Russo-American consultations aimed to find a common position on missile defense issues has ended in deadlock.
Is France also trying to send signals--first to Tehran that its strategy of waiting out the clock on the Bush Administration to January 2009 is risky, and to other European states and Russia that if they don't begin to develop a more credible diplomatic "stick" then the military option returns to the table? Are Kouchner's comments in Moscow meant to convey in no uncertain terms to Washington that keeping pressure on Iran is the goal, not trying to develop a possible hedge against Russia using missile defense?
Nicolas Sarkozy has made clear that he considers himself a friend of the United States but not a blind follower. If France can broker arrangements on Iran, Kosovo and missile defense that are workable compromises between U.S. and Russian positions, how will the administration react? The Czechs are certainly interested in this question, as I assume other Europeans are too.
The general population expects a US attack for this or that excuse.
You cannot frighten that country - you are only are going to make them angry.
Anyway, the current 3-month-long IAEA-Iran deal (the brain-child EU & Iran), if (a big IF) resolved to IAEA's satisfaction, will destory all legal basis of UN sanctions against Iran. It will also destroy US's platform against Iran. This would preclude an attack on Iran in 2009.
If there is a war to come, it will be after the international meeting on Iraq in mid-October in Turkey - probably in November or December.