Tuesday, April 03, 2007
What's Going on in Ukraine
I've already made my case earlier today for the United States to back process over pesonality in the ongoing political crisis in Ukraine.
Ukraine needs to have stable procedures for resolving political issues and this I think is a more overriding interest than whether "pro-Western" politicians gain temporary advantage. I've always been concerned about a trend in Eastern Europe and Eurasia toward having political matters resolved outside of constitutional frameworks. Georgia, for instance, has not had a single instance of stable transition of executive power since becoming an independent state in 1991. Now we have a situation where some in Ukraine seem to want to have constant "repeats" of elections to produce a desired outcome.
I just don't see the evidence that if new elections are held that somehow the Orange Coalition is poised to make great electoral breakthroughs in eastern Ukraine. We'll come back to the same deadlock that we have now. And institutions will be weakened further.
Ukraine needs to have stable procedures for resolving political issues and this I think is a more overriding interest than whether "pro-Western" politicians gain temporary advantage. I've always been concerned about a trend in Eastern Europe and Eurasia toward having political matters resolved outside of constitutional frameworks. Georgia, for instance, has not had a single instance of stable transition of executive power since becoming an independent state in 1991. Now we have a situation where some in Ukraine seem to want to have constant "repeats" of elections to produce a desired outcome.
I just don't see the evidence that if new elections are held that somehow the Orange Coalition is poised to make great electoral breakthroughs in eastern Ukraine. We'll come back to the same deadlock that we have now. And institutions will be weakened further.
Comments:
<< Home
I would go even further and suggest that perhaps it will be a good idea for US to have no position in Ukraine. US has national interest there. Just like Georgia, Azerbaijan etc.
None of these states are worth the Russian-US relationship.
None of these states are worth the Russian-US relationship.
# posted by 
: 10:01 AM
: 10:01 AM
Nick--
Imagine if foreign governments tried to intervene in Bush v. Gore. Then imagine what the reaction would be from the winning side.
Timoshenko can't win at the ballot box, so she's going to stir up trouble and hope you bail her out.
Imagine if foreign governments tried to intervene in Bush v. Gore. Then imagine what the reaction would be from the winning side.
Timoshenko can't win at the ballot box, so she's going to stir up trouble and hope you bail her out.
# posted by : 11:58 AM
: 11:58 AM
It all depends on Russia.
In 2005, the Orange Revolution really was neccessary. Ukraine indeed needs to have stable procedures for resolving political issues - and this does not include rigged elections. Ukraine risked descending into an authoritarian regime.
2007 is different. Yuschencko apparently no longer has popular support. This raises hope that the pro-Putin forces might stick to stable, law-based, non-dishonest procedures, because they can now have what they want without dirty tricks.
If Yanukovich takes a Putinist turn, the U.S. should be ready to support dissenters. We need to take a harder line with our friends than with our enemies on democratic norms.
In 2005, the Orange Revolution really was neccessary. Ukraine indeed needs to have stable procedures for resolving political issues - and this does not include rigged elections. Ukraine risked descending into an authoritarian regime.
2007 is different. Yuschencko apparently no longer has popular support. This raises hope that the pro-Putin forces might stick to stable, law-based, non-dishonest procedures, because they can now have what they want without dirty tricks.
If Yanukovich takes a Putinist turn, the U.S. should be ready to support dissenters. We need to take a harder line with our friends than with our enemies on democratic norms.
# posted by : 3:24 PM
: 3:24 PM
I'm not sure how useful it is to try to define relations in bilateral terms. Our policy should be either to encourage Russia and its western neighbors to move closer to Europe, and let the EU serve as the means by which political processes become regular, or it should be to move more slowly and address discrete problems like security through less intense but still inclusive bodies like the OSCE.
"If Yanukovich takes a Putinist turn, the U.S. should be ready to support dissenters. We need to take a harder line with our friends than with our enemies on democratic norms."
Jordan, you miss the point. Russia is the enemy. Russia has the human and material resources to conduct an independent foreign policy, and the USG cannot stand that. The USG supported Yeltsin because he was running his country into the ditch. The USG opposes Putin because he has steered his country away from destruction and is leading it from strength to strength.
Its that simple.
Jordan, you miss the point. Russia is the enemy. Russia has the human and material resources to conduct an independent foreign policy, and the USG cannot stand that. The USG supported Yeltsin because he was running his country into the ditch. The USG opposes Putin because he has steered his country away from destruction and is leading it from strength to strength.
Its that simple.
# posted by : 12:11 AM
: 12:11 AM
I don’t think that new president or even brand new government will solve problems that Ukraine has. I’m Ukrainian myself moved to US eight years ago and in my opinion Ukraine is like a dying horse that cannot stand by itself but there is no one good to help it. All politicians in Ukraine are corrupt and the once that trying to become politicians want to be corrupt and still whatever is left. Seven years ago Ukraine had a population close to 52 million now it is 35 million people leaving Ukraine and dying there at tremendous rates, I keep in touch with many Ukrainians and all of saying that situation is getting worse every minute, people do see future and live like they have nothing to lose. Officials do not report murder rates death rates and other fatal instances. Just from what people tell me about rapes, stabbing and deaths it scares me more and more where that country is going.?
Post a Comment
<< Home
