Thursday, March 15, 2007
Hyperbole?
Nick Xenakis and I weigh in on the Burgas-Alexandropoulis pipeline issue in today's National Interest online (The World is Not Enough).
One of the argumentd deployed against Greece signing a pipeline deal with Russia is what we pointed out here:
"“As we have seen before in Lithuania, Poland and elsewhere, EU and NATO memberships are not enough to protect a country from Russian pressure.”
"This is an amazing statement. NATO is the world’s most powerful military alliance, and member states subsist under an Article 5 guarantee of their security—including the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The United States is preparing to deploy missile defense systems in the former Soviet bloc. The European Union—in terms of its population and economic might—far dwarfs the Russian Federation, even one flush with oil revenues.
"Yes, Russia is a recovering regional power, and certainly its strength has grown in recent years—but let’s not get carried away here!"
Are we so eager to go back to the Cold War (perhaps because we are having such problems adjusting to the post-Cold War environment) that casting Russia as being the equal of the combined nations of NATO and EU is taken seriously?
One of the argumentd deployed against Greece signing a pipeline deal with Russia is what we pointed out here:
"“As we have seen before in Lithuania, Poland and elsewhere, EU and NATO memberships are not enough to protect a country from Russian pressure.”
"This is an amazing statement. NATO is the world’s most powerful military alliance, and member states subsist under an Article 5 guarantee of their security—including the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The United States is preparing to deploy missile defense systems in the former Soviet bloc. The European Union—in terms of its population and economic might—far dwarfs the Russian Federation, even one flush with oil revenues.
"Yes, Russia is a recovering regional power, and certainly its strength has grown in recent years—but let’s not get carried away here!"
Are we so eager to go back to the Cold War (perhaps because we are having such problems adjusting to the post-Cold War environment) that casting Russia as being the equal of the combined nations of NATO and EU is taken seriously?
Comments:
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Both militarily and politically NATO is nothing without US.
Having said that, it is also clear that from both a military and political point of view NATO membership offers no protection to states such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
Neither US nor NATO are going to go to war with Russia over these states. Moreover, these states, and states such as Romania, Poland, and Hungary cannot afford NATO costs - common weapon systems, upgrade C3I etc.
NATO is an old gentlemen's club that ought to be understood as such.
Having said that, it is also clear that from both a military and political point of view NATO membership offers no protection to states such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
Neither US nor NATO are going to go to war with Russia over these states. Moreover, these states, and states such as Romania, Poland, and Hungary cannot afford NATO costs - common weapon systems, upgrade C3I etc.
NATO is an old gentlemen's club that ought to be understood as such.
# posted by 
: 6:21 PM
: 6:21 PM
These new NATO members thought that NATO, a defense alliance, was somehow going to intimidate Russia into providing cheap raw materials. And that NATO means intervention in commercial disputes. Not going to happen. And the more they protest, the more the core European powers are going to not take them seriously.
# posted by : 7:16 PM
: 7:16 PM
First off, just wanted to let you know that I linked to your site and the article you had at nationalinterest.org
http://joshmanicus.blogspot.com/2007/03/world-is-not-enough.html
Second, just wanted to say I was glad I stumbled across your piece because it reminded me about something I had come across quite a while ago now: http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/08/23/russiaoil.shtml
http://joshmanicus.blogspot.com/2007/03/world-is-not-enough.html
Second, just wanted to say I was glad I stumbled across your piece because it reminded me about something I had come across quite a while ago now: http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/08/23/russiaoil.shtml
"... a question of “when” there will be a disaster in the straits of the Caspian".
The Capian has no straits. :)
The Capian has no straits. :)
# posted by : 9:16 AM
: 9:16 AM
A lot of chatter on Greek sites about this piece. The bottom line: even Greeks that didn't think Bourgas-Alexandropoulis was the best deal still don't want the US dictating to them or to be told to do something that Turkey wants.
# posted by : 2:07 PM
: 2:07 PM
A lot of chatter on Greek sites about this piece. The bottom line: even Greeks that didn't think Bourgas-Alexandropoulis was the best deal still don't want the US dictating to them or to be told to do something that Turkey wants.
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# posted by : 2:07 PM
: 2:07 PM << Home
