Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Iraqi Realism

Peter Khalil of the Eurasia Group has this to say about Iraq's simultaneous diplomacy with both the United States and Iran:

"Iraqi President Jalal Talabani met with Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamanei in Iran in the past day highlighting Bush’s hastily organized dash to Jordan to meet Maliki as catch up diplomacy. ... Talabani consequently can see that worst case scenario of Iraqi state collapse (and all the negative consequences that would have on Iran) worrying the Iranians and is using US weakness and the carrot of possible US concessions to Iran as leverage to encourage Iran to work harder on the stabilizing side of their Iraq strategy.

"Effectively Talabani’s visit to Iran is recognition that Iraq has reached the brink of complete collapse and it is time for Iran to swing its influence more heavily towards stability – but the Iranians will exact a heavy price and that is the US conceding its albeit waning strategic influence in Iraq to the Iranians and further legitimizing Iran as the only regional power that can help bring Iraq back from the brink. That is the same message Maliki will be delivering to Bush.

The US administration has been played into a corner where they will have to accept the current reality of Iranian power and influence over Iraq and agree to this increasing - if they are to avoid a complete collapse of the Iraqi state."

Priorities. That is the name of the game. Preserving Iraq requires an accommodation with Iran. Or we can decide that confronting Iran means presiding over the collapse of Iraq.

Maliki has a strategic calculus in play. Do we?

Comments:
One of the mistakes was to assume that Iraq under Shi'ite management would continue to play the role of container of Iran that it did under Saddam. Or that Afghanistan could be reconfigured to serve that function as well.
 
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I think that commentators and observers are un-realistic in their opinions regarding the amount of Iranian influence in Iraq. I seriously doubt that Iran can click her fingers and Iraq suddenly calms down.

Iran does not need US accomodation in Iraq. The laders of Iran have resigned themselves to UN sanctions over their nuclear program and also a possible inconclusive (for US) military confrontation with US.

They cannot control the events in Iraq - however they can channel the violence away from Iran and their Shia allies.

While a stable, non-threatening Iraq is desirable for Iran - it is not essential. But the continuation of the current crisis in Iraq is much more damaging to non-Shia states: Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and others.

I just do not see any incentive for Iran to help US in any meaningful way in Iraq - the President's statements (akin to his reassurances that WMD discovery in Iraq was just around the corner) indicates to me that he is unwilling to pay the price of Iranian help and that he is in a state of denial.

The President might be correct that the Iranian help may not be worth the price but he would not know until he tries. Moreover, the local allies cannot accept his refusal - they cannot afford the Iraqi civil war.
There is too much danger to them.

While a policy of deterrence against Iran was a possibility in the late Summer-early Fall of 2005, it is no longer a possibility (at the 2005 price).

The events in Iraq, in Lebeanon, in Israel & PA, in Ukraine and in Georgia all point to the extreme cost of that deterrence (anti-Iran) policy for US, EU, and ME states.

I do not think that the President will change his policies, he will continue along this path - Baker's panel is irrelevant.

The best hope one can have is for him to not attack Iran before he leaves office.

In 2009 we will have fresh governments in US, UK, France, and even possibly in Iran that can implement imaginative policies that might help all sides.

Let us hope.
 
I think that commentators and observers are un-realistic in their opinions regarding the amount of Iranian influence in Iraq. I seriously doubt that Iran can click her fingers and Iraq suddenly calms down.

Iran does not need US accomodation in Iraq. The laders of Iran have resigned themselves to UN sanctions over their nuclear program and also a possible inconclusive (for US) military confrontation with US.

They cannot control the events in Iraq - however they can channel the violence away from Iran and their Shia allies.

While a stable, non-threatening Iraq is desirable for Iran - it is not essential. But the continuation of the current crisis in Iraq is much more damaging to non-Shia states: Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and others.

I just do not see any incentive for Iran to help US in any meaningful way in Iraq - the President's statements (akin to his reassurances that WMD discovery in Iraq was just around the corner) indicates to me that he is unwilling to pay the price of Iranian help and that he is in a state of denial.

The President might be correct that the Iranian help may not be worth the price but he would not know until he tries. Moreover, the local allies cannot accept his refusal - they cannot afford the Iraqi civil war.
There is too much danger to them.

While a policy of deterrence against Iran was a possibility in the late Summer-early Fall of 2005, it is no longer a possibility (at the 2005 price).

The events in Iraq, in Lebeanon, in Israel & PA, in Ukraine and in Georgia all point to the extreme cost of that deterrence (anti-Iran) policy for US, EU, and ME states.

I do not think that the President will change his policies, he will continue along this path - Baker's panel is irrelevant.

The best hope one can have is for him to not attack Iran before he leaves office.

In 2009 we will have fresh governments in US, UK, France, and even possibly in Iran that can implement imaginative policies that might help all sides.

Let us hope.
 
I also agree with the annonymous commenter that Iran can not control the events in Iraq. However, there are few things that Iran, given the right incentives, can put on the table. Iran has good relationship with the Kurdish and Shiite groups in power in Iraq. Also from all account, it seems Iran is providing support for Sadr which is fueling the Shiite side of the conflict in Iraq. Iran can get these groups to ask for less in any agreement that is going to be reached between them and the Sunni Arabs. This would be similar to the role that Iran played in the agreement reached in the Afghan case, where Northern alliance was made to accept Karzai, a Pashton, as a president.

The problem in Iraq's case is that what Sunnis want is not something that Iran can provide. What Sunnis want is a mixture of a US withdrawal and regaining some of their previous status. If US would put the withdrawal as an option on the table, the Sunnis would become more easy to talk to. They might even try to rely on the US in getting their share of the pie in Iraq. At the moment, their quest for getting their previous status is inline with forcing a US withdrawal.

Before finding a partner and solution on the Sunnis side, talking to Saudis and Jordanians would take a precedence over talking to Iranians. Another alternative would be getting Saudis and Iranians together to workout a fair solution to Iraq in consultation with their friends there. This can not happen without a full engagement with Iran which seems completely unlikely under the Bush administration.
 
Drastiia Grazhdanin Gvosdev,

Your analysis on Maliki going to Tehran is less than accurate insofar as that it implies that the
Persians [Iran], are the puppet masters of the sectarian violence, and that once Tehran waves a magic wand, that violence will end or at the very least subside considerably. This analysis is to my mind considerably flawed. The current state of the sectarian violence in Iraq, has gone far beyond its origins in some of the originally Persian based emigre groups of the Hussein period. While these groups leaders still might have good ties with Persia, that does not mean that on the ground, those who are members of said militias, regard themselves as foot soldiers in a Persian army, and will take orders from the same.

The lesson here is that when a situation is desperate, one often sees a tendency to grasp at straws. The recently emerged 'Tehran is the solution', is a classical case of such tendencies. I am surprised that you have fallen into the same.
 
This administration doesn't have the minds for such calculus.

The only thing I can think wrong with this is that the Sunnis don't trust the Persians.
 
We've already chosen to confront Iran and allow Iraq to collapse. We won't admit it that that choice exists, but it does. Unfortunately, that doesn't leave our larger strategic picture vs. Al Queada any clearer, nor our Iraq one.
 
Jordan W.:

You are probably right.

This is the worst possible policy for US.
 
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