Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Another Revolution Grinds to A Halt

The Cedar Revolution looks to be joining the ashheap of history, on the heels of the Tulip and Orange Revolutions, as we learn there are no low-cost solutions to radically reshaping the geopolitics of regions of the world in flux.

Alexis Debat and Ghassan Schbley have this to say about recent developments in Lebanon:

With Gemayel’s death, the Siniora government is teetering on the verge of collapse. If one more cabinet member either resigns or is killed, it will fall, and with it will collapse Western fantasies that Syrian influence in Lebanon could be erased with the wagging of fingers in Washington, New York and Paris. It seems clear that the assassination attempt on Pharaon was designed to trigger that last resignation to bring the government down.

Make no mistakes: this will happen. We are already and unfortunately in the post-Siniora era in Lebanon, where no doubt Hizballah will do everything it can (including forging an alliance with another Christian leader, Michael Aoun) to gain veto power over the next Lebanese government, and, over the long run, forge a new and broader constitutional order in Lebanon—one where the Shi’a dominate the political scene. As we now know, this kind of earth-shattering shift seldom comes in Lebanon without political violence.

Washington and Paris must first and foremost realize that, even though their aims in Lebanon were noble, their method was extraordinarily naive. Even without troops on the ground, Syria is strong in Lebanon, and will remain so as long as Hizballah reigns supreme over the Shi‘a community. In Lebanon, as in Iraq, we need a new method, emphasizing clear political goals. As Israel now knows, the best weapon against Hizballah is not the F-16 but a new, rejuvenated Amal.

Zhdrastiia Grazhdanin Gvosdev!

As per your comments about the Cedar Revolution: well, one can certainly take a purely Grossmachtepolitik view of the situation and say: 'yes, sad but true, the Lebanon has to be sold down the river, in order to get the USA out of the Iraqi debacle'.
However, that point of view assumes that a realpolitik view of the world, governs the policies of the Western powers. However, if one looks and reads closely the responses of the same powers to what has occurred with the Gemayel murder, than what one sees, is not
a resigned shrug about 'inevitable' Syrian-Hezbollah domination, but, on the contrary a strong wish and determination to resist, in some fashion or other, Syria, and its allies push to overturn the events of 2005. Read for instance the editorials in NYTimes, Financial Times, Le Monde and Le Figaro, for example.

What will or will occur in the Lebanon is anyone's guess, however, as a historian (or are you a political scientist...) like
myself, I would hope that you remember that events, id est, history never conforms to any preconceived expectation or linear line of development. It will always tend to surprise one. Hopefully, it will do so in the Lebanon as well.
What impact does hope and surprise have on sensible policy decisions?

If anything, those elements have been shown to have minimal influence.

What is happening in Lebanon is a power play, with violent undercurrents. It would be contrary to sense to expect anything but a brawl.
This "power play, with violent undercurrents" you mention is happening almost everywhere on earth, including here in the land of OZ.

With no viable, or "realist" military options or deterents, and with absolutely no legitimate political credibility anywhere on earth, the Bush government can do little now but watch as events unfurl, and attempt to manage the various horrorshow in any way possible that will allow the fascist warmongers and profiteers, (Vulcans, neocon's, et al.) in the Bush government to heap these costly, bloody, noendinsight conflicts and crisis on the laps of our children and the next leadership.

Hezbollah and Syria will continue to dominate Lebanon.

Iran won Iraq.

There is already a ferocious civilwar ongoing in Iraq, despite the hollow denials, and partisan fictions and myths pimped by the Bush government and it's puppet Maliki.

Iraq will divide into two or possible three regions, and the oil revenues will be flowing to the Shi'a south, and Kurdish north, leaving the Sunni's much poorer and desparate.

America, under the totalitarian dominance of the fascist warmongers and profiteers in the Bush governmetn (tragically) destroyed any hope there may have been for enhancing, or increasing democracy, anywhere on earth.

While, I would remind our realist sisters and brothers, that this socalled thing termed "democracy", by any standards has been radically mangled and eroded here in the land of OZ, the more terrible truth is that all these potential democratic evolutions, or revolutions, - indeed the very definition or idea of what is democracy - have all been seriously undermined, and rendered moot by the grotesque incompetence, obscene abuses, radical deceptions, wanton profiteer, and unabashed tyranny of the fascist warmongers and profiteers in the Bush government.

Impeach these criminals and let us all begin the hard work of repairing the terrible damage done, and focusing most of our energy and efforts on peace, - and much less on war.
US, EU and have no strategic stakes in the Levant - they have no dogs in that fight.

For them, the events in the Levant is just a game - a sort of amusement.

They try to select winners and loosers and their failures never seem to peneterate.

Cut funding to all players - Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, PA, and Jordan. Let them fight each other on their own resources.

Your interests and interventions only prolongs the agony and makes the final settlement that much more difficult.

Get the Christian powers out of Levant.
"the Bush government can do little now but watch as events unfurl"

I agree with those who say we should abandon the Cedar Revolution and the investigation into Hariri's death. The Siniora government is too weak to contain Hizballah or do anything for the United States so letting it go would be of no loss. Offending Syria at a time when the United States may need to enlist its aid in stabilizing Iraq however is stupid.

Siniora's undoing may actually help us if Hizballah and the Amalist Party cannot resolve their political differences and govern. They have reached an understanding for now but it might not hold when they govern Lebanon.

Would the Syrians back Hizballah and force the Amalists to join the anti-Syrian coalition or would they back the Amalists and put at risk their alliance of convenience with Iran?

I don't know but either way, the Siniora government's demise may help us and it certainly couldn't hurt us.
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