Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Wednesday: Mexico, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran

Is an Orange Revolution likely to happen in Mexico? Some similar elements: charges of fraud, an outgoing presidential party wanting to secure the succession--but in this case the United States wants the PAN's candidate, Felipe Calderon, to become the next president, to forestall the "leftist wave" from cresting in Mexico. So what if the PRD's Lopez Obrador says that 3 million votes went missing?

What will happen if the IFE declares Calderon the winner and the PRD doesn't want to accept the results? And what happens if the PRD can cite exit polls and claim there are discrepancies with the tallies?

The Acorn over at The Indian National Interest noted something that I had missed in keeping tabs on the India nuclear deal:
While most eyes are on the nuclear deal, the Bush administration has notified Congress of its intention to allow the sale of 36 F-16s (yes, those F-16s) to Pakistan. The US$5 billion deal includes 18 new and 18 used aircraft, as well as the upgrade of 34 aircraft from Pakistan’s existing fleet.So something of a half a loaf for Islamabad after all.

On North Korea, the Postmodern Conservative has anticipated Japan's reaction, including drafting a resolution of condemnation that is to be presented at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

Surprise, surprise, Ali Larijani is delaying his meeting with Javier Solana to discuss Iran's response to the latest proposals of the EU-3 for ending the nuclear standoff. Perhaps the Iranians want to avoid giving the G-8 summit participants enough time to have a coordinated response ready for St. Petersburg?

One point that is being forgotten is that the race in Mexico was a three way one. For Obrador supporters who say Calderon has no mandate, it is like Republicans who questioned Clinton's mandate with 43 percent in 1992. This problem arises when too much emphasis is placed on "democracy" and not enough on the republican form of governance, which also stresses rule of law and proper procedures.
Musharraf is a pragmatist. Beyond the usual rhetoric, don't upset the US-India nuclear deal and use that to claim rewards. And if he's a betting man, it's not a bad bet that the US will still somehow screw up the deal.
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