Tuesday, July 18, 2006
G-8: Final Thoughts
After the G-8: Putin, at least, got what he want, in the International Herald Tribune
Putin on the Ritz, in National Review Online.
UPDATE: An audio file of my talk at the Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs is now available as well.
"But a three-day meeting, even in a setting like St. Petersburg, cannot substitute for the real problem: the lack of a shared strategic vision — as well as agreement on the best way to put it into practice — among the major powers."
This is the key point. But a consensus depends on the range (time horizon) of strategic vision. A consensus will be difficult to achieve if the range takes for granted the short-term fact that Russia and America are both powerful and are both rivals. Longer-term trends (ie. that the geopolitical positions of both countries will not be the same in 20-30 years) need to be factored into these perceptions and debated in both countries, starting now. A more convergent sense of interest is already evident in some areas of long-term concern (eg. the control of national nuclear arsenals). The way to make it stronger in other areas of concern is to underline the long-term aspects.