The (Ex) Washington Realist

So that there is no confusion on my thinking on Ukraine--I believe that a strong Ukraine is absolutely vital to the stability and prosperity of Europe and Eurasia. Indeed, I've always felt that effective Eurasian integration can only occur when you have Ukraine and Kazakhstan able to deal with Russia from positions of strength.

But I'm tired of the Ukraine bait and switch here in Washington--where policymakers and pundits talk a good game about integrating Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic community but are unprepared to pay the costs.

If U.S. national interests are best served by substantially changing the balance of power in Eurasia--and one can make a case for acting now to reshape the Eurasian environment, say by a major expansion of NATO--then do it--and be prepared for what it will cost.

Instead, Ukraine is being "Turkified"--if I can create that adjective. Remember how Turkey was promised it would be brought into the European community--by Charles de Gaulle? That was BEFORE I WAS BORN. For more than forty years, Turkey has been kept on the interdeterminate list. There were good reasons, but at what point should the Europeans have levelled with the Turks and said, full membership is not guaranteed to be on the table?

Ukrainians are being told they have a "European/Western" choice to make--but in reality they don't have a choice to the extent the Western option is not viable.

And speaking of Turkey--let's round out the discussion by talking about the two visits of Angela Merkel, to Washington and Moscow.

I recognize that symbolism and "impressions" are important components in the conduct of international affairs. Merkel has a much better relationship with Bush than her predecessor, and that was made abudantly clear. Similarly, I doubt Merkel will be getting any invitations to cozy get-togethers with the Putins at their dacha.

But what about the substance? Merkel could not give Washington firm assurances on two matters which are high-priority for the United States--that Turkey is on track for EU membership, not a "privileged partnership", and that Berlin sees eye to eye not only on the Iranian threat but what to do about it. Certainly a better dialogue than with Schroeder, that is for sure--but still nothing firm.

And while Merkel and Putin are "colleagues" rather than "friends" the core of the Russian-German partnership remains unaffected. The Baltic pipeline project is on track, Siemens is buying into a major Russian military-industrial complex, trade and business ties continue without interruption. Sure, Merkel met with NGO leaders in Moscow--just as Bush went to church in Beijing. Important symbolic gestures--but with the message that the core relationship remains unaffected.