Monday, January 09, 2006

More on the aftershocks of the "gas crisis"

To share with readers of the Washington Realist, perspectives from two different analysts and observers:

First, from Peter Lavelle, over at Untimely Thoughts, on why Russia, GAZPROM and investors are the big winners of the recent flare-up:

"Gazprom shares have increased over 10% in the first four trading days of 2006 and are set to sustain that price rally in the coming weeks as investors see just how important a company it really is and how cheaply it is rated relative to global peers. ...

"Why Gazprom is a winner in the “gas war” with Ukraine (2)

"Gazprom intends to eventually sell all of its exported gas at the EU average price. That confirms the implied strategy of changing Gazprom from a “political arm” of the Kremlin to a more transparent and commercially orientated concern.

"Why Gazprom is a winner in the “gas war” with Ukraine (3)

"There should be greater drive to get an agreement in place to start the Shtokman project. Partly this will come from the EU countries interested to diversify the “routing” of gas imports away from the current dependency/vulnerability to the Ukraine corridor and also from the Kremlin as it will be keen to reconfirm its commitment to energy partnership with consumer countries."

Second, from James Poulos, the Postmodern Conservative

With Russian Gas, Real "Market Fairness"--why new pipelines, including both the Russian Baltic system and the ones proposed by Georgian President Saakashvili, could lead to a "gas race in Europe, in which a full diversification of pipeline supplies accompanies competetive price cuts, would be an excellent spur to productivity on the continent."

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