The (Ex) Washington Realist

Two news items ...

The first: Putin aide Andrei Illarionov has handed in his resignation to his boss, citing profound disagreements with the direction of policy.

Illarionov's resignation highlights the emergence of new business-political blocs in Russia, each grouped around a different state-controlled company or sector of the economy. It also signals his frustration that the Putin Administration did not use its consolidation of power to vigorously promote liberal reforms.

What it says to me is that the transition to 2008 is in full swing. If Putin was preparing to stay for a third term (in violation of the Russian Constitution), one would expect that he would continue to push his agenda through. Instead, a process of consolidation is now underway which suggests that the "regime" (and here I mean the principal actors and rules of the political game) is being stabilized, in preparation for a stable transfer of power to the next candidate. More and more, I think we should revisit what happened in Mexico in the 1920s and 1930s for how this is done.

The second: Ahmad Chalabi is reportedly short of the votes needed to enter the Iraqi Assembly--and if so, he would be ineligible for any ministerial position. Of interest:

"Chalabi's supporters had hoped he would do well among exile voters who were allowed to cast ballots overseas. But results released Monday showed he received 0.89 percent of the special vote."

Is this another manifestation of what I may start calling "Takeyh's rule": "If you're running a campaign to appeal to Westerners, you lose every time!